Australia's interest rate is at an historic
low, currently sitting at 0.75% and possibly heading even lower. As the Reserve
Bank of Australia (RBA) moves the cash rate closer to zero, an increasing
number of banks are failing to go along for the ride. Individual lenders have
been told to look towards alternative lenders, with the RBA itself possibly
resorting to even more desperate measures as it contemplates quantitative
easing. With few moves left to stimulate Australia's struggling economy, the
economic landscape is heading towards interesting territory.
The most recent interest rate change saw
the official cash rate drop by 0.25% to a record low of 0.75%. Despite this
historic drop, changes to mortgage rates were much less significant in the real
world. While some small banks passed on the full 0.25% cut, others dropped
mortgage rates and deposits by as little as 0.10%. The nation's big four banks
have been under increasing pressure from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, but there's
very little he or anyone from the government can actually do to influence
things on the ground.
According to a recent ABC report, the
average interest rate would now be at 3.18% if the banks had passed on all
three of the latest interest rate cuts in full. Instead, the variable rate
offered by the big four banks ranges from a low of 4.77% at NAB to a high of
4.83% at Westpac. While both NAB and Westpac made the biggest cut recently, it
was still just 0.15% of the full 0.75% reduction. ANZ and Commonwealth Bank
made even less of a concession at 0.14% and 0.13% respectively.
The historic nature of the interest rate
cut, and the bank's unwillingness to pass it on in full, both point towards a
weak national economy. Australia's current inflation rate sits well below the
target 2-4% range at just 1.5%, and we are comfortably in the top three
globally for household debt. As things currently stand, the combination of
rising house prices and lower interest rates may not be good news after all.
This weakness may be overstated, however, with smaller banks such as Athena,
Homestar, Auswide, and UBank the only ones to actually pass on the rate cut in
full.
According to Michael Youren, Ibis World
senior industry analyst, what the RBA is currently doing amounts to little more
than buying debt to feed more money into the economy. When you throw in the
possibility of negative cash rates in the months ahead, "Greater borrowing
capacity would continue to inflate property values” and further expose
Australia to a housing bubble. Negative rates are unlikely, however, with
Philip Lowe from the RBA already hinting that he is more likely to use
quantitative easing than let rates fall below zero.
Despite what we often hear in the media,
low interest rates are certainly not good for everyone. People saving for a
house deposit are already doing it very tough in Australia, with less interest
earned and larger deposits likely to make the situation even harder. While
access to credit has been improved for some borrowers, lower rates have also
coincided with tougher regulations by the Australian Prudential Regulation
Authority (ARPA). Regardless of what happens, the RBA seems to have lost some
of its power as factors other than rates become more significant to the wider
economy.